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DOC45•2002wastheyearofsurprise
2002surprisedeveryoneontheupside.Industryunitsalesincreased37whileunitsalesinthesedanmarketgrew56.2002wasthestartofasignificantsecularmovebytheautoindustry,inouropinion,triggeredbyChina’sWTOentry.
•2003istheyearofincreasedexpectations
Deeperderegulation,includingtariffcuts,increasedquotas,andtheopeningupofautofinancearepushingChinaontotheglobaltrackin2003.Weexpectdomesticsedanunitsalestogrowafurther35andaverageautopricestofall10-15.Thisisbasedonourestimateofa30YoYadditioninsedancapacityin2003.
•Stronggrowthtocontinueinthenextfewyears
China’sautomarketwasclosedforalmosthalfacentury.Webelievethatasteptowardsatisfyingdomesticdemand,restrainedbythelackofproductchoicesandautofinance,andexpensiveautomobilepricesandlicensingcosts,wastakenin2002.Weconservativelyestimateimmediatepent-updemandat15millionsedansforurbanfamilies,in
contrasttoonly1.1millionunitsalesofsedansin2002.，大小：218 KB